Sunworks correction/turnaround soon? ABC, potential to 2.70

tommtajlor Updated   
NASDAQ:SUNW   Sunworks, Inc.
Sunworks suffered a lot already, and the stock almost in the graveyard. I am following it a while, was a nice short on the way down. Finally posted a tiny bit more positive earnings compared to expectation.
Meanwhile a falling wedge formation created. Also moving in a big downward channel. There are two scenarios for counting the waves, one scenario suggests, that the wave 5 down could be finished (1.618 extension was put in a few days ago), and we are up for at least an A-B-C upside correction.
Possibly (but not guaranteed) we just starting to put in the Wave "A", so far.
Consodilation in a smaller channel happening, with one breakout to the top,which could fall back. Important thing in order to have this idea a basis, is not to put in a new low (0.7252), and not to stay below comfortably 0.78. If that happens, then I need to assume new lows are coming.
It is possible, that this 0.78 level will be retested, I am following SUNW's actions now more closely.

On the daily, RSI is started to come up a bit, trying to leave the oversold levels. MACD coming up, a little bit week still.
The 9/15 SMA's starting to turn updwards, currently being a possible support. 21day EMA so far rejecting price actions, so we are squeezed in between those.
52day EMA/180 EMA, 200SMA coming down, 52 in a higher speed.

On the weekly, 200 SMA up at around 3.92; it is far away (to be a resistance)
Weekly RSI is on oversold levels (could drop more of course), trying to leave it, now showing sign of possible normalization,
MACD indicator could start to converge (in a few weeks could be divergenced, but no guarantee)

I have opened a long position( accumulation purposes), regardless of this idea.
I plan to open an other one for swing-trading, IF we restest the 0.78 fib level and popping back up from that (meaning possible wave 3 starting to the upside, and wave 2 is in)

Also be aware, as of now, the 1st quarter 2023 results,conference call and webcast was postponed, which might heavily influence the price actions (and sure it has a reason behind it.)

Resistance at 0.92, next resistance at 1.12.
No GAP below, next GAPs upwards:1.12; 1.62
Short update, I was watching the price actions, checked pre/aftermarket actions as well. For the more bearish scenario: this is still very early days, and it is possible , that we have not finished the wave 5 down yet (there is multiple ways to count the waves). It is possible (there is a chance), that we are forming the wave4 "up", but then possibly it gonna be short lived before going down to wave 5.

My concern is, this wave 2 count is not very confident so far. In fact we put in two times 1-2-3, and if I count extended trading hours, then it is actually 3times 1-2-3. Impulsive move missing to start wave3 up. Therefore it could happen this will be the scenario:
I need to see either blue brush scenarios and an impulsive move up, at least 3count out of 5 to have some more confidence in the primary expectaions.
Trade active:
Mid size position added
So we got the impulsive wave up I was waiting for, confirming that we are in a 3rd wave up started, and possibly showing at least temporal trend change (remember, so far I believe 5th big wave finished, and we putting in a bigger A-B-C up correction as a minimum- and later who knows - but that is many many weeks away)
Overall i think we are now in a very small (see in blue) abc correction to create a small pullback, I highlighted the support areas in yellow boxes. It does not neccessarly HAVE TO pull back to those area, but USUALLY small wave2 (small abc downcorrections) does that.

So as you can see, I believe on the micro-level we have finished 5 small waves , which is part of wave i (wave1). So for now, as proven by price actions otherwise I think we are in a wave 2, of bigger wave i (first wave), of a bigger wave 3, of a bigger wave "A". Meaning plenty of upside potential, of course it is not 100% !!!. And it will not happen from one day to an other, also will have ups and downs, zigzags, impulsive waves, and pullbacks.

We closed at 1.13, just above a very important resistance level. Now, normally we should pull back to the orange boxes, HOWEVER it is possible that we get an other impulsive up instead, and then I will modify the micro wave counts, so therefore when pullback needed, it will just need to pull back to this resistance level. I will watch it carefully what happens next.

On the daily, we have pleanty of room on the RSI to the upside, MACD is coming up strong, also volume is starting to grow.
9day SMA, 15day SMA, 21day EMA turned back up, and coming up so far, will provide support later.
The 50/52 day MA provided resistance, which is also correlates with the top of the both falling wedges; meaning, so far we was unable to break it through. REmember, we have 2 falling wedges inside each other.

The smaller wedge uptarget: 2.96
The bigger wedge uptarget: 3.88
But theese are very long ways to go.
If we reach the big A wave minimum target of 2.70, I will be more than happy, more just extras.

On the weekly we have left oversold territory on the RSI, MACD is in the negative but showing some slowdown and convergence already, not yet diverged though!

Again, I was trying to catch a possible bottom, so the indicators will need to catch up to support this possible idea. So far it is positive.
Short mid-day update: so we got an extension of the wave3 and putting in a rather high small wave5. Normal thing should happening now: a pullback (abc with a small zigzag). I highlighted to you the support zones, if it is breaking below comfortably the last rectangle, then probably something more bearish going on, but that is not my primary expectations.

We should find support either in the first or second box, and starting an other 1-2-3-4-5 count up
We are forming the blue c wave down correction, I plan to execute to follwing trade, orders are set for long:
Price actions shows strenght, quite impulsive again in fact, altough I am not 100% convinced this is already the 3rd wave up, altough could be. There is still a high chance this is just the abc correction (wave ii) currently just putting in the b wave up, which could be even overshooting. I can count on the microlevel 5 count down as a "leading diagonal", so we could revisit the support area to put in the c wave down. Above 1.33 I would consider the wave ii however finished and we are already in the wave iii up , of the 3rd wave of the big A wave up.

All currently relevant MA's (9day/15day/21day/52 day) are below us, possibly providing support later (this support the wave ii finished scenario), also the weekly RSI looking good, MACD converged and just divergenced( this is just the beginning of the week!!!).

We are reaching soon overbought territory, which does not mean we cannot shoot higher in the short term, just signals attention (this more supports that we are still need to put in the blue small c wave down to the support area boxes).

Whoever likes formations, we also have a cup and handle, currently formed the right up-part of the handle, and sitting at resistance.
Very nice runup, we have put in either the 3rd blue wave up (there is a chance it is already the 5th wave up, due to the huge runup, I can count 5 waves technically).
Long story short: we are anyway up for a pullback/correction, also the RSI would need some breather.
So far all the daily MA's are below us, good sign. (except the 200, but that is normal after such a huge selloff)
I might add some more position on the pullback
SUNW acting so far very strong, hesitating just around the strong upper resistance level. Technically the 3rd wave up could be in. It was very strong move, and it is also possible, that it was already the 5th wave in. Anyway a pullback is imminent, either a wave 4 with an abc down, or a bit stronger bigger if it was the 5th wave.

I assume the count up has been finished, possibly we already put in the a wave down, folliwing b up (could be overshooting b wave be aware!!!), and then a c wave down. Therefore I adjusted the support boxes for later turnaround again to the upside. Also it is a good candidate now for a short setup, stop loss putting a bit above the resistance, and your take profit being the support boxes (tp1-2-3 maybe)

Daily looking very good from the Moving averages perspective (9/15/21/50), showing very strong momentum. RSI is getting overbought, MACD also very strong, so I would say probably ~around time to put in the pullback (normal).
Weekly also closed strong, we converged and divergd on the MACD, RSI coming up nice as well.
Mid-day update: I have updated the support/turnaround boxes for the supposed red small abc downcorrection, based on the price actions today/before hours.
Trade active:
Position added @1.42
Trade active:
Position added @ 1.35
That was a massive impulse down today; big bullers showed up at resistance at 1.26. I catched the push back up at 1.35, that was an extreme fast movement. With this movement it is not possible anymore we are in the iii. blue wave up, but minimally it was the blue v. wave, I have adjusted the analyzis. For now, it suggests, we have completed the orange 3rd wave up, and whats happening now, so far, is an orange 4 wave pullback.

But be aware, with this amount of extreme short sellers it also became clear, what is their agenda, and it is very very straightforward:
First they will try to invlaidate the 5 count up structure (my orange counts) by want to dump it to the 1st yellow box. We could still have a bullish scenario overall in this case

If they succeed, they will then try to shoot and mass sell down to the second yellow box, invalidating the cup and handle AND putting in a huge head and shoulders. We could still have a bullish scenario, just with different wavecounts, but it will be then extremely risky; sellers want this whole nice moveup to be only a huge wave 4 correction of SUNW (followed then by a 5th wave down. massive down I mean)

If they succeed, they will then try to selloff to the third box, ultimately invalidating this whole concept, the ABC upcorrection, morphing this into just the big wave 4 correction, and sending SUNW to the graveyard. Just be aware, the risk is there.

I still stick to the primary scenario (buliish) until not proven otherwise.
We have all the moving averages support below us. RSI/MACD has room to grow further. Weekly datas still looking okay. Due to the massive move today, I do not see that the abc downcorrection is finished yet, in fact, I would not be suprised to visit now the orange and the brown box below, but lets see.
Mid-day update: we are putting in the c wave down from the small a-b-c pink colored as expected. Now, seemingly at least 1 more leg down missing... we are forming a triangle, which usually happens in wave b or wave 4, meaning, I assume we are in a smaller wave4 of the pink c wave leg down, and hopefully will not shoot a lot under the pink a wave low. Lets see, bulls need to be very strong now.
Possibly we are morphing the wave 4 (hopefully?) into either an abcde triangle / wxy or wxyxz triangle. We need patiente now.
We started the week with some dancing around the smaller support boxes. Clearly SUNW right now is suffering, fight is going on hugely. So far this is looking now weak; on the daily, the 9day SMA is rejecting us, which is not a good sign: meaning we are even suffering to put in the pink D wave up which could "save" the bulls. Moreover, seemingly either a triangle or a bear flag is forming on the lower timeframe, meaning, bears desperately want this to visit the other support boxes below as a minimum (and then we all know what they want as a next step).

So far, the 21 and 15 day MA's providing support. We also left quiet a big gap to the upside.
Moreover, on the daily, RSI is weakening, and MACD is seeming about to put in a red, converging already, possibility is very high that it will diverge as well, meaning selling pressure getting more extrem possibly. Lets see...

SUNW suffering heavily still, I have modified the counts, this scenario have the highest chance now that going on:

I would say we gonna hit most likely the top of the barrier trendline and then selloff incoming to the lower support boxes. But I am not 100% (nothing is)
Mid-day update: wave purple small "E" fell short, but valid still, we broke to the downside, putting in I would say the pink "C" wave, of the yellow circle "y" wave.

Warning! It does not looking finished for me, possibly other low coming later.
I have revised the counts, I will switch to this as a primary scenario for now. Invalidation point is comfortably (so not just a small visit with dropdown wicks) is under 1.09 USD, but the first warning sign is breaking the wedge, second more major is breaking under the red support box.

I still expect upper movement, but first to put in a lower low now (one more leg down). The first orange 1-2-3-4-5 is a big "A" wave up as a leading diagonal. Now we are putting in the "B" wave down, within we having a yellow WXY, where the Y wave having an a-b-c, where the b wave had an a-b-c-d-e barrier/triangle setup, which broke down, and now putting in the last 5 wave move down within the c wave, which finishes the yelloy "y" wave, which finishes the big "B" wave down (or big wave 2 down, we do not know it yet if it will expand later to upper price targets around 2.60-3.20 USD level or not)
It is less likely that we started already tha orange wave 1, initially the impulsiveness was there, however after the pullback it is still seemingly consolidating, therefore I think the pink wave C still not looking finished, so I expect more downside before going up.

Also, the 21 day EMA, 15day SMA and 9 day SMA so far rejecting the upside movement, being resistance for now.
The RSI pulled back to a healthy level, and the MACD on the daily started to slow down to the downside.

If we pull back again to the lower segment, or to the red box (which for me seems likely, to completet the pink abc down-correction), I plan to add half of my remaining planned position, probably around ~1.14 .1.19
Trade active:
Position added @ 1.12
We got the leg down, now the red c wave down looking more okay from a technical perspective; we also almost touched the bottom of the red support box (0.618 fib level from the bottom), so I still assume, this is either the "B" big wave / big wave 2 downcorrection.
Technicly we can count 5 waves as an ending diagonal. We so far had a little-ish fake breakout to the downside from the rising broadening wedge (but then jumped back so far).

So far the 9/15/21 day MA's are above us, and will act as a resistance later. Currently the 50/52 day SMA and the 0.618 fib level providing support, volume still low-ish.

What we would need to see now:
1) not to break comfortably the red support box to the downside
2) start to put in the impulsive wave 1 up
3) bullish volume to arrive.

We also left a huge gap at around 1.50-ish level.
Possibly we are forming a triangle on the lower timeframe, which usually occurs at wave 4, indicating that at least we gonna have one more down leg in this pink C wave down.

Problem is, then possibly we gonna drop below the orange wave 4 lows, meaning, our cup and handle getting invalidated then, and bears win...
Very weak action, triangle is under formation. Buyers and sellers are "negotiating". I rarely see such misery. If bulls wont be able to turn this around, and we drop below the red box, and then if we take out comfortobly the 1.05 USD price level, then possibly game over for SUNW, and bears successfully morphed this into just a huge wave 4 correction, before further drop, possibly below 0.5
Triangle broke to the downside, maybe started to put in the last count down.
Even weaker actions then yesterday overall, chances dissolving rapidly that bulls will be able to turn this around. The last leg down does not seems finished, in fact for me it seems we have a 1 count down only out of the 5 (3&5 min timeframe).

Parcitcly we are 3 pips away from death as far as I see, that would indicate, new lows possibly coming as I mentioned.

Bulls where are you????
Aftermarket update: we have dropped below already to 1.04, the previous cup and handle is invalidated. Congrats for the bears!!!
This analyzis is therefore possibly will not work out anymore, prep for a bigger drop I would say. There are 5-10% chance this could be turned around, but usually theese are not working out. I will still keep track of the price actions.

There is a huge chance now this is going on:
Meaning, this moveup possibly was just an overall wave 3 with an abc, and now 5 waves down incoming (90% chance)
I do expect to finish the orange wave 3 to the downside at around ~0.99-0.97 USD, which should be followed by a wave 4 correction to the upside.
Mid-day update:
There is a chance, bulls trying to turn this around for the bullish scenario still (even though we dropped quiet deep).
If we break 1.26 and 1.28, then we do not drop below 1.05, chances high it is turning around!!!
Mid-day update2:
So far price was unable to break through 1.26&1.28, in fact price reacting nicely to wave 4 retracement(orange) at the green resistance box, so far it is "textbook".
Now, if price is able to stop and turn around in the yellow drawed box, it is still having a second chance.
So far no evidence of turning around to the upside, also we have only 3 counts up, and now pulling back seemingly.
The 21 / 15/ 9 day MA's rejecting upward movements so far, also the 0.382 wave 4 pullback acted textbook (green box).

If bulls want to turn this around, they have a slim chance, for that price should not fall below 1.06, because that would suggest (90%), new lows coming, and then falling below 1.00 USD would suggest we gonna at least visit the 0.92 USD levels (95%), where chances becoming extremely slim (~5%) that bulls will be able to turn this around.

For chances to grow step by step:
1) we need a 5 count up, before putting in a 3 count down
2) we need to comfortably take out the previous swing high (not just a wick) at 1.25
3) we need to take out 1.32
4) we need to take out 1.37

RSI on the daily following paralelly so far the falling trendline (not a good sign)
MACD selloff slowing down (that is a good sign)
Trade active:
1k shares added for accumulation purposes @1.01
Moment of truth coming soon!
daily MA's (15/21/9/51/52 are squeezing in), volume is falling though, watch for breakout in any direction!
Huge ongoing fight, trying to decide which way to go (put in the 5 huge big wave down to possibly under 0.5, OR have the turnaround and start 5 count up with a wave 1)

Important would be for the bull case now not to drop below 1.05.
So far volume is missing.
Mid-day update:
I have adjusted a bit the falling wedge, but it showing more and more weakness. Volume is fluctuating, and whenever starting to pick up, sellers gain the upper hand.
We are starting to run out of time for the turnaround (IF bulls want that), and also starting to loose ground, currently being on the low-end of the consolidation.

If it wants to turn around, it is the time. Otherwise chances extremly high, new lows coming if we lose 1.06/1.05
SUNW closed miserably weak again. We have lost so far the 50day MA's which was one of the last resort. Seemingly the falling wedge will break to the downside.
If it happens, and we drop below 1.06, chances are 95% bulls wont be able to save this, and probably we gonna make a huge head and shoulders pattern as well, and then I would say the current wavecount (very bearish) will stay in effect.

All the moving averages are above us, each one of them will act most likely as a resistance as well.
MACD starting to accelerate to the downside, RSI is falling back as well.
Game over I think. I will not update anymore this spread.
Trade closed: stop reached
With today's unexpected move I give 1 more chance for SUNW.
Be aware, the cup and handle IS invalidated. And we DO HAVE a huge head and shoulders (bearish).
So what needs to happen now:
1) We CANNOT drop below 0.99 USD
2) On the pullback, the small fib level box for the upcoming pullback MUST hold (I need to adjust it as price evolves)
3) We need to take out the orange wave 4 (currently the bearish case in the charts) @1.25
4) We need to regain 9/15/21/50-52 day MA's
5) Once the pullback happened to the small box, we must go up in 5 waves (as a wave 3 then) minimum to 1.32, preferably higher, but I need the pullback bottom to calculate the target.

If the pullback stops in 3 counts now, I will jump back to the trades. (I still have my accumulation purpose amounts). Until then SUNW needs to prove itself.

Not convincing so far, issue is, we only have now 3 wave(3count) to the upside, I am unable to count clearly 5 count, and we already pulling back. If price turns around at 1.05 putting in 2 more count to the upside, taking out the previous high, and then do a pullback again, then maybe it is going to work out. Just maybe.
Price reacted nicely on the 0.5 fib level (small orange support box), and in a 3 count pullback as I can see, which is needed, however we was not able to fullfill the other criterias so far. We need now 5 waves up, and to take out each previous swing highs, very important one being at 1.25 USD, regain the upper resistance level comfortably (1.18), then take out the 0.5 upper fib level comfortably (1.30 USD), then the 0.786 (1.49) comfortably, so a lot of work for SUNW.

I am still not convinced.
Pre-market update:
we do have now technicly a 5 wave move to the upside; this could be a small wave i (yellow) to the upside, and a local bottom, now in order to this for be "bullish" if price is not going now higher (it could), then a 3 wave pullback should follow and price should not drop below the 0.768 fib level (smaller orange support box).

If in deed we are still in a bullish scenario (i have many doubts) however, that would mean big wave 1 (upside) and long, big wave 2 (to the downside down to ~0.96USD) are ready and we are starting the 3rd wave to the upside, so we should witness fast, impulsive movements soon.

It is far from a guareente though as I mentioned; this could easily be just a wave 4 with an abc, or morphed into something other bearish scenario, so be aware.
We might developing a so called "leading diagonal" so I have added support boxes (smaller orange one). Be aware if this is the 3rd wave up starting, we might have shallow pullbacks, so I have added the 0.382 fib level as well as possible pullback/turnaround zone.
We need some more price action, but if I take into consideration the pre/aftermarket hours movement as well, wavecounts SEEMINGLY overlapping, and possible forming a rising wedge as either the wave 1 up in the 3rd wave, OR we are just creating the bigger wave 4 pullback for the bearish case.
Wavecount and box updated.
We was evolving in 3 count moves to the upside as I can see, possibly we have put in now the white wave (i), and soon should come down in 3 waves to form the white wave (ii). It is very important that the support box should hold, and after the 3rd leg down, in an impulsive way we should go up rapidly (if we do have the bullcase). Price should hold 1.03, meaning we should not drop below in a consistent way, and if a wick goes under, definetely cannot break the 0.97 USD levels!!! If it does... this is just a correction to the upside before dropping further and further.
Adjusted according to price action, support box updated. Note we have a gap @ 1.14, I would not rule out that one will be filled in the white wave (ii).

Technicly I can count 5 waves up, we got an extension. If we do not come down to the support box, and make a new high, then possibly it is the yellow wave v extension.

On the hourly we have a crossover on the MACD, diverged, and put in one negative bar, RSI starting to point downwards, indicating a drop/pullback. IF indeed this is the bullish scenario, then it is still normal, we need that wave (ii) to the downside in 3 counts. I will add there some position , with a stoploss @1.01 probably, just below the 0.768 fib level.

On the daily, we regained the 9/15/21/50-52 day MA's which is a good sign. On the daily MACD we converged and diverged to the upside, RSI pointing upwards, and have plenty of room to the upside. We hit the luxalgo sell indicator, but again, for a wave 2 pullback that is normal. (more important for intraday and swingtraders on the hourly/daily)

We are getting expanded upside wave, support box adjusted for that. As long as we stay in the purple channel, it can get still expanded. Remember, if this is a wave 3 to the upside in deed, pullbacks probably will be shallow.
Daily looking still strong (all MA's regained), only the hourly datas looking overextended to the upside; so If I would need to guess, in max 2 days we are getting the wave (ii) pullback.

Weekly MACD turned back bullish, trendlines coming up again, but still below the ground level. (it will need several weeks for that) Weekly RSI sloping up, just below the 50 level, but pointing upwards again.
Very strong day, currently all the moving averages has been defeated, even the 180&200 day MA's. We took out the previous high as well, and definetely moving in a rapid way so far.

I have recounted the waves with the possible shallow pullbacks, I believe we are in the white wave (iii) already within the orange wave 1, within the white wave (3) (or C and we gonna top, we do not know it yet), which could be part of a bigger A wave up, or wave 1 up (depending if the ultimate lows are in for this year or not).

MACD and RSI on the daily looking extremely strong for now. I think we have started a wave (iv) pullback, but remember, we kind of expect shallow pullbacks only. I have added a support box for the wave (iv) pullback if needed.

Seemingly we are forming a kind of a triangle which suggests wave iv.
Pullback fib support area adjusted (green box).
Once it is finished, I would expect one more leg up possibly (very rapid movement, hard to count), and then a an orange wave 2 pullback. So far, I have added support fib area (orange fib box) as well, but it will be needed to adjust once wave 5 top is in (maybe it is already in?)

Just a possibility, I am currently trading on this basis:
seems wave (v) is in, and orange wave 1 finished, and that we are going down to orange wave 2. Big orange support box is in effect.
Extremely volatile day, possibly we put the wave 1 top in, and immediately reversed; during the day we had a ~24% drop which is extreme; suggesting we are already in the wave 2 down, which will possibly consist an abc. I believe therefore we are forming the a wave down still, will be followed by a b wave up correction, and a final c wave drop. Support box added, I have also marked the 0.382 fib level, so far price is reacting to that. Also on that level we find the 200day MA, which price was unable to close above (bad sign).

Also we have a huge red rejection candle, an extremely big one, suggesting downside coming (wave2).
How deep it could pull back, we do not know it yet, technicly it can go all the way down to 0.768 fib level, even could sip under it, so probably the best technique is scaling in - I will follow that.

We do have structural support at ~1.64, 1.53, 1.43 (which is the golden ratio on the fib retracement), and at 1.31. 1.22 and at 1.12. I will use theese to scale in.

On the daily MACD we are having strong upside momentum, however the RSI is on the overbought level; possibly will cool down on the upcoming days (and retrace which is in alignment we are having the wave 2 pullback anyway)

Seemingly the pullback happening in an overall diagonal (falling wedge currently). I do not think the pullback is over, although reacting on the 0.382 fib level, but that would be quiet week for a wave 2. What could happen, that overall we are moving in 3 counts (abc) structures. So if price shoots up now, it COULD be, that we not gonna get 5 wave up, but 3 in an abc format.
Fib levels still relevant:
We have regained so far all the moving averages. Also, reacted twice on the 0.5 fib level. So far this is looking bullish. I have some doubts however; it is POSSIBLE the orange wave 2 have not finished yet, and what we witnessed today is just a B wave to the upside. In that scenario, we revisit the orange support box and put in a new low there. However, that would also mean quiet a deep pullback, which would indicate, we are moving overall in abc structures (3 count moves). In that scenario, we have to change probably the overall wavecounts. Still bullish though, but the upside not gonna be that straightforward.

Anyway, until not proven otherwise, I stay with scenario one. I have adjusted the boxes a bit.
The green drawings is the scenario 2 first few steps. (Abosuletly not proven yet, no evidence so far. It is more of a warning that other scenarios exists, and that is the other relevant one which could play out.)

I forget to mention, IF we are in scenario 1, that means in fact, that we are in the orange wave 3 of the white wave (3), of an overall primary wave 1 (or wave A, we do not know that yet). a 3rd wave of a 3rd will be very fast moving, with most likely shallow retracements, meaning, price action should rapidly evolve with small pullback zigzags to the upside now.
I have added the yellow trindline as a guide, as long as it is holding (small fakeouts are okay), we have further upside potential without any bigger pullback.

I have added a possible white wavecount suggesting the wave (1) and wave (2) is in. Price not looking very impulsive though. If we are in the orange wave 3 (as mentioned yesterday), then in a very rapid way we should reach now 2.20 as a minimum, followed by a small pullback, and then further upside.

So far, it is not looking like price wants to do that, so what is the other bullish scenario? (Scenario 2):
We are moving in 3 counts as a diagonal (abc within the waves). As it currently stands, I could make the case for that.

There is a 3rd bullish scenario, but so far it is not looking relevant. Currently I am still with scenario 1.
Trendline broken, we need to IMMEDIATELY JUMP BACK and target 2.20, and start an impulsive way up if we want scenario 1
Order cancelled:
Something weird is going on, it might be an overall diagonal, seemingly this is not a 3rd wave up. Impulsiveness is missing from upside. Possibly we are dealing with a bigger abc, will see what will happen later, and re-evaluate the counts.
Todays movement opened up 5 different scenarios unfortunately. I have sold off everything just in time, so overall about ~75-80% profit, I wanted to protect that.

From the daily perspective huge rejection candle. We lost support again on the 200/180 day MA, and also the 9 day is crossed heavily (bad sign). the 21 and 50 still below us, and probably will provide support, sloping up slowly. Those needs time.

Overall I am bullish on SUNWORKS, but I do expect now a deeper pullback unfortunately. So what could going on with this movements?
We need to switch for now to scenario 2 (this is what I have warned you could happen a bigger abc pullback).
I still think overall it could be a bigger 1-2, 1-2 setup. So I am assuming now we are still in the orange wave 2 pullback, so the orange support box becoming relevant again. It is quiet clear at least an abc is forming, price was rejected in the red resistance boxes for a b wave top.

Scenario 2 - a):
We have finished the b wave to the upside, and now coming down in a c wave (hence the impulsiveness to the downside).

Scenario 2 - b):
We cannot see it yet, but the b wave is not yet finished, and actually it will make a big triangle as an abcde (yellow drawing). If we make now a new low, THEN possibly this subscenario can be dismissed.

Watch for the support levels!!!
Structural support: 1.53 USD, 1.44 USD, 1.30 USD
MA support: 1.51 USD, 1.32 USD
Fib supports: 1.41 USD, 1.21 USD.

Based on further drop and levels, I will scale back in slowly.
In either case, we must hold 1.21 as the 0.768 fib level, we cannot drop below that comfortably (meaning, a tick or two is allowed, but cannot stay under that long)
If we break that level, then other scenarios will open up, but there is no evidence so far it is happening.
No major event so far, it still can be both scenario. Overall we did have sideways movements. Remember- scenario 1 is already out of the window, and we have now scenario 2-a and scenario 2-b.

Just wanted to share you scenario 3 (as I mentioned the price movement opened up different other possibilities), which is the next most likely after scenario 2-a and b.

In this one we are overall moving in a huge diagonal; does NOT change though the support levels drasticly. It would be a very early phase trying to "assume" out this one, but just in case I have added a possibility for the diagonal (wedge). More or less it is also correlating the 0.768 fib level from our orange support box.

Remember, so far this is NOT the scenario we are following as it has no evidence yet.
It is STILL suggesting upward momentum, just as a huge diagonal.
Scenario 2 - b) is 99% chance out of the possibilities.

Seemingly for now it is following scenario 2 - a)
What I can see, is that therefore the red circle c wave down has been started. We already in the support zone, and reached the minimum pullback expectations.
Be aware, the red circle c wave down does not seems finished, So far we have a possible 1-2, and currently in the 3rd wave down. At least one more up, and then a deeper pullback we should expect.

However, if now it immediately turns around and starting an impulsive wave up, it CAN be still valid, then this whole pullback is not an abc, but a wxy. My strategy is scaling back in slowly, remember!
So far following through the scenario 2-b. Seemingly we should still have a small upcorrection and a new leg down, as the red circle c wave expanding to the downside. Huge support sitting however below us, hence the hesitation; lets see if the last wave down can evolve, or it will be truncated maybe unable to go down more.
Trade active:
Small position 1 added (5%)
So far price action is doing what it supposed to do in our primary scenario.
Seemingly we are going in the ending diagonal for the red circle c wave. Also reaching optimal buy zone, where the risk-reward is getting favourable. I will see whats gonna happen on monday, and contunie to scale-back in most likely.

I assume we have about one more new local-low to come; the 50/52 moving average is coming at 1.34, so it will be interesting if it pulls back, maybe even sips under, but if it will be pushed up.

Overall no unexpected movement, I consider this just a pullback to to the choppiness, and also no sign of any major impulsive price action to the downsie so far.
Trade active:
Small position 2 added @ 1.30
Trade active:
Small position 3 added @ 1.26
On the micro-level we do have only 3 counts up and down, suggesting one more low incoming. One possible target is in the green box to have the lows.

It is also possible, lows are in, and we gonna move up in a diagonal 3-3-3-3-3 structure, hence the choppiness and the 3 counts only, but that is a bit unreliable.

Pre-market update:
As expected we are getting one more low (meaning one more wave down), the challenge is this is quiet ugly now, we have went down to 1.08 USD, dropped over 20%.

Our primary scenario got invalidated almost, but buyers stepped in (extended trading ours, mostly institutions I assume). On the bigger scale we had the 0.618 fib support sitting at 1.11, also we have structural support at 1.08 USD where buyers are waiting, and it was able to push back up the price so far to 1.23 USD.

I will keep still the primary count until not proven otherwise.

It is possible we have started the first wave up, I have added a small yellow support fib box for the possibly upcoming pullback for the second wave.
Probably I will need to recalculate the waves; news just came out that SUNW doing a direct offering of 1.00 USD per common share. Now taking into fundamentals into consideration, this means most likely we will drop to that levels.... Lets see the upcoming 1-2 day what will be the effect.

If its dropping down there from here, that means we need to switch scenario to the one which I highlighetd several days/weeks ago, could play out (huge diagonal movement). So just be aware!!!
So I have checked the possibilities meanwhile for the bullish case

Scenario 1 (our primary which we follow now, till proven otherwise):
We have a 1-2 and an other 1-2 setup

Scenario 2 (our fallback scenario):
We are moving in a huge diagonal in 3counts (abc-abc-abc-abc-abc), that is very hard to follow but I will try if it turns out we need to switch to that one later.
Roughly it would look like this, BUT there is no evidence so far: