NVIDIA - Bears, This Is Your Chance

LordWrymouth Updated   
In a previous post on NVIDIA following its earnings gap all time high, I posited that a bearish three drives was a real possibility, which would involve the stock actually going down and then driving up a few more times in accordance with the overall market topping:

NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few.

That never panned out, and instead what we're looking at instead, as you can tell with all the insider selling, is a very likely bump and run reversal.

But distribution patterns take a very long time to manifest, and one of the biggest tells with NVIDIA is despite it going from $366 to $440, it really has never targeted the sell side, not even rebalancing the original gap.

As far as this company goes... well, when you come across something like this whose CEO is a Taiwanese dude prancing around in a leather jacket for every photo op while it's trading like a Chinese Communist Party pump and dump, a number of red flags beyond the 250x P/E it's trading at should emerge.

Companies and their officers who have connections to the CCP are very dangerous, for the geopolitical situation is tense. Much is at stake right now with Mainland China and whether or not Xi Jinping is intelligent enough to get rid of the Party.

If Xi can't get rid of the Party, then the International Rules Based Order will do it for him and will go to install their own people from Taiwan in the Mainland.

Xi always has the option to weaponize the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong, started by the Jiang Zemin faction that's rooted in Shanghai, to take down the Party and defend China from the groups that wish to invade.

Live organ harvesting isn't a sin that can survive public scrutiny, really.

None of this is healthy for the markets, and if you're long on stocks at the top, some of them aren't coming back.

The indexes might come back, but many companies definitely go to zero and will be replaced by a future generation.

When you look at NVIDIA on the monthly, does this look like somewhere that you want to go long?

A monthly "gap" like this will certainly always be filled, and it just happens to be right around the actual level we're looking to target.

The weekly bars are severely ranged compressed, which tells us that a big move is coming

I have a call on that Nasdaq that we're about to get a pretty violent and serious correction, but that it will really be a bear trap:

Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap

You might feel right now that stocks ONLY GO UPPY. But considering you're in a bear market and these things have been mooning for like an entire quarter right now, you might want to check that notion before that notion wrecks you.

The problem with NVIDIA going and making a new high right now is it's failed to do so twice. Friday's end of the day was a big rejection on everything Nasdaq.

And this is a time when price stopped just 1.8% short of the high.

So what it was really doing was covering the old range, and taking stops over the most subordinate high to the all time high.

Another big tell is the SOXS and SOXL 3x leverage semiconductor ETFs are simultaneously setup on weekly and daily candles to breakout/retrace, and both started to do that in sync on the Friday dump.

NVIDIA is the top component of the index underlying the ETF at roughly 9%.

The most obvious place for it to retrace to to start taking out sell stops is the $395 gap.

But this is only 5% at this point and not very scary.

Meanwhile, all the bulls and all the bears start selling on a break of $366, because Discord and Reddit told them to and some books and guru videos told them to "because confirmation."

Once the gap is finally balanced, I believe that Nasdaq is going to rip to something like 16,000 before we're done, and NVIDIA will actually finish its lifespan with a 5-handle.

So for bears: here's your opportunity. But you better have realistic expectations.

For bulls: here's your opportunity. But you better have patience in buying the dip, and you'll find you "made a lot of money getting out of the market too early."

And for bulls and bears: stay away from ponzi companies and social distance from the CCP and all the Marxist-Leninist and atheist things.

If you don't, you'll face more than the liquidation of your brokerage accounts, to say the very least.
That's a quick dump to start Monday, and thus far, lacking the usual will to rip back uppy uppy uppy uppy uppy uppy right away.

The most notable confirmation that NVDIA is going down, imo, is today's price action stayed strongly under the opening high and had no interest in going up in general.

Compare that to the previous 2 weeks where it's more or less traded like a bottle rocket with too much baking soda.

Another notable change is NVDA opens up and then landslides down, for once.

Hard to buy the dip on this kind of thing.
SPY (SPX) guns the top before close with CPI on deck before market open tomorrow.

But look at how weak QQQ (Nasdaq) and NVDIA are?

Nasdaq (and SPX) has already ran the high and now futures have printed an hourly pivot.

Yet NVDA has not taken its high yet.

Whether it failed swings or does run the top, we're looking to see breakdown patterns that indicate the downside of this trade idea may soon start to manifest.
Watch for NVDIA (and Nasdaq) to take out the high tomorrow morning.

If it dumps, it's not a dip you can buy.
NVDA gaping up over the high at $444 (666, death in Chinese). Is it a move you can sell?

At this point, NVIDIA would have to at least breach $427 for the trade thesis to apply.

It would have to show evidence it intends to take significant daily lows to go back to the gap.

Otherwise, the next targets can only be $480 and $500 with any reversal ultimately meaning that NVDIA may have set its eternal top.
$480 was indeed plinked and the rejection is legitimate.

If a downtrend forms the target is definitely the original opening gap. Whether there's a future upside beyond that really depends on if Nasdaq topped today.
Good morning NVDIA fans.

I have two new posts up over the weekend relevant to the overall market:

One on SPY, the SPX ETF:

And one on Microsoft:

NVDA is giving us signs its topped, after sweeping out $480 and now is starting to take out multiple hourly pivots to the downside.

$500 may not happen, is the harsh reality for bulls.
For semiconductor fans, I have a new call up on for a potential long on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM):

It's notable that the bull trolls in the comments only appeared when NVDIA traded over $450.

Congratulations on a green day, but you're looking at a failed swing and the red arrow is an optimal short entry.

All three indexes have taken their February of 2022 failure pivots. It's very dangerous now to be an idiot.
One of the notable things about NVIDIA, at least for now, is where did all its momentum go?

$480+ was already printed and price failed at $477. It absolutely does not have to go to $500.

Greed is at extremes and it will kill you.
Nothing about price action is bullish. In fact, NVDIA is telling everyone there's been a bearish shift, and this is the part of the game where dip buyers get merked.

May see prices under $400 into the end of the week with CPI on deck tomorrow, whether it comes in good or bad.


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